Hybrid threats

DEFINITION OF THE TERM: The term ‘hybrid threats’ refers to coordinated and synchronised actions conducted by state or non-state actors that are below the threshold of a war. The aim of hybrid threats is to exploit vulnerabilities and cause harm to the target by influencing its decision-making processes at the local, regional, state, or institutional level.

HISTORICAL ANALYSIS OF THE TERM: In the post-Cold War era, faced with the rising power of NATO and the United States, the revisionist superpowers developed a conceptual model of confrontation with the West which changed the forms and modes of international influence they exerted. Hybrid threats reflect how the nature of conflict and the role played by non-state actors has changed over time. These changes have been influenced by globalisation, international networking, the internet, new information technologies, social media, information space, and the new media landscape.

DISCUSSION OF THE TERM: Actors who employ hybrid threats seek to gain increasing international influence while minimising the costs incurred in doing so. They achieve their strategic objectives by synchronising the ways of exerting influence, by ambiguity and, above all, by results. The choice of tools depends on the actor (state actor or non-state actor) and the purpose of its action. Each tool can produce outcomes in one or more operational domains.

SYSTEMATIC REFLECTION WITH CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS: Intentionally synchronised in time and space, hybrid threats provide a mechanism for long-term strategic rivalry in the grey zone and achieving political objectives by exploiting vulnerabilities in the states and international organisations under attack, without the need for direct military combat.